The latest tracking reports show no sign of the oil spill anywhere near the Florida Keys. However, that could change by mid-August. According to NOAA, there is a 61% to 80% chance of the oil reaching Key West by then………….There’s a lesson here for lobster fishermen who were finally beginning to relax, and think they might actually be able to work this season without problems from the oil spill: Never stop worrying! With only a 20% to 39% chance the spill will miss the Keys, the odds are definitely against us escaping the disaster…. I’m sure glad they said 61-80, instead of 60-80. Now the pesky skeptics can’t claim that NOAA just pulled some round numbers out of thin air.